Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Decline Thirty-Seven Percent During the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Figures

The typical number of daily homicides per month in the country has dropped by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per new official data. However, security experts have warned that homicide data might not indicate better national stability.

Significant Drop in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an average of almost 55 murders a day in last November as opposed to almost 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidential office in September. This announcement was delivered by the chief of the nation's federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we have seen in these months is remarkably important,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, adding that in November the least figure of murders were registered for any November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Strategy

Intense cartel infighting, combined with the administration's heavily militarised operations to take on the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate soar in recent years. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x greater than that of the United States. However, killings have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her national security plan for an seemingly more pronounced decline in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the President declared: “There is a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The plan works. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The central elements of the President's security plan encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Greater collaboration between various departments.

Expert Skepticism and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, security experts urged caution that focusing solely on murder data to assess the situation of improved security was problematic. This is notably true given the increase in different criminal activities such as people going missing.

“This would be very good information if this was a drop, but I think we must not just look at the homicide numbers and think: ‘Alright, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the same period last year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is not useful for assessing the reality of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who lack the ability or the desire to properly recognize and categorize bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly averages of everyday homicides was also concerning because it might obscure periods when there were notably elevated levels of murders.

“Relying on the daily mean makes surges of violence less visible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Success

Where the government can cite the success of its security strategy is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for major offenses, according to government figures. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s very politically profitable,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Anger

However in spite of these actions, Mexico continues to be grappling with extreme violence, with several states in the throes of cartel-related conflict. Recently there was a notable assassination of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the last year.

A short time after, many thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and across the country to show their frustration at corruption and narco-violence.

“The government frames [data] in a way to build a picture of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, socially it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas concluded.